Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Election 2006

So how many seats will the Dems pick up? Will they take back the House and/or Senate? I certainly think that this is a possibility but I would not count out Rove and his "72 hour" get out the vote effort at crunch time.

I have been reading too many predictions from Dems who are now cocky beyond all reason. I even read an article today about the Dems figuring out who will get which committee chairmanship. STOP!! Its way to early to say that the Dems will get the 15 seats needed to retake the House. Even if they do their majority will probably be very slim. The Senate requires a change of seven seats, and that's an even harder task.

Its far more reasonable to think that the Dems will get 8-12 seats in the House and 3-4 seats in the Senate. The concept of the "safe seat" has made it very very hard to see huge numbers of seats changing hands. Congress is not very good at anything but they ARE good at protecting their own jobs. This has nothing to do with party affiliations either.

Fact is a majority of Americans feel we are not going in the right direction on a wide variety of issues. The problem is we are a very divided nation, and not just a straight "red" vs "blue" but the right is split as well as the left. There are many factions in national politics at the moment and many powerful single issue interest groups with lots of cash to spend. It all adds up to one great big muddled mess, and it will get 10x worse for the 2008 election.

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